Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.55 – 128.93

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.5 ±12.4

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 140.94Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 33.64Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 21.97Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.8 ±11.6

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 16.44Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 72.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 40.3Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5940, 11243, 4765

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5940, 11243, 4765

Auto

41.3 21%

Teleop

116.9 59%

Endgame

38.8 20%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5171, 3970, 8852

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 3970, 8852

Auto

20.0 15%

Teleop

76.2 58%

Endgame

35.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.5pts

Blue projected score128.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.6
Score range: 109–217
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.5Season APEX424.8

41.3Auto20

116.9Teleop76.2

38.8Endgame35.1

18Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	21
teleop	115	73
endgame	10	22
foul	5	0
total	173	116

Result

Final score

173 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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