Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.36 – 109.01

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 7.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.4 ±12.2

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 69.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -0.88Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.1 ±12.8

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 10.26Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 70.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 28.38Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2035, 841, 8045

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2035, 841, 8045

Auto

26.3 29%

Teleop

38.1 42%

Endgame

27.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6918, 3970, 8840

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 3970, 8840

Auto

21.2 20%

Teleop

55.7 53%

Endgame

27.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.4pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.7
Score range: 72–133
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.4Season APEX335.1

26.3Auto21.2

38.1Teleop55.7

27.2Endgame27.5

64Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	37	45
endgame	27	30
foul	5	0
total	94	97

Result

Final score

94 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 7.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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