Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.58 – 74.73

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 114.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±11.7

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 46.72Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 69.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -7Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.3 ±12.2

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 47.92Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 16.65Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 10.16Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 114, 840, 10615

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 840, 10615

Auto

24.3 23%

Teleop

56.7 53%

Endgame

25.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8033, 10221, 4904

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8033, 10221, 4904

Auto

6.8 10%

Teleop

36.4 51%

Endgame

28.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.6pts

Blue projected score74.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.8
Score range: 55–130
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.9Season APEX250.3

24.3Auto6.8

56.7Teleop36.4

25.1Endgame28.3

60Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	14
teleop	133	117
endgame	43	42
foul	0	20
total	220	193

Result

Final score

220 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 114.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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