Qualification · Qualification 47
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
40.11 – 45.47
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
58 – 55
Prediction missed · off by 13.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±11.6
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 0.27Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 24.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 15.58Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -4.98Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 108Event APEX 26.65Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 23.8Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10281, 5700, 8016
31
/ 100 compatProjected
40.1 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 10281, 5700, 8016
Auto
15.1 42%
Teleop
16.1 45%
Endgame
4.7 13%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4669, 253, 4765
31
/ 100 compatProjected
45.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4669, 253, 4765
Auto
18.6 46%
Teleop
12.0 30%
Endgame
9.7 24%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.36
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score40.1pts
Blue projected score45.5pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -5.4
- Score range
- 20–65
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
237.8Season APEX236.1
15.1Auto18.6
16.1Teleop12
4.7Endgame9.7
1Consistency88
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 20 |
| teleop | 20 | 17 |
| endgame | 13 | 18 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 58 | 55 |
Result
Final score
58 – 55
Prediction missed · off by 13.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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