Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.3 – 140.87

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±12.7

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 3.04Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 1.91Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 17.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.4 ±12.2

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 39.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 71.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 29.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11230, 11463, 2035

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11230, 11463, 2035

Auto

10.2 44%

Teleop

2.3 10%

Endgame

10.5 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8852, 5104, 8840

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8852, 5104, 8840

Auto

35.1 25%

Teleop

73.9 53%

Endgame

29.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.3pts

Blue projected score140.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.6
Score range: 2–161
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 110.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.1Season APEX363.4

10.2Auto35.1

2.3Teleop73.9

10.5Endgame29.9

39Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	11	105
endgame	11	40
foul	20	0
total	57	172

Result

Final score

57 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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