Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.13 – 27.8

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

36 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.5 ±13.9

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 12.02Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 43.03Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX -2.92Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.9 ±13.9

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 16.82Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 19.92Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX -8.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8045, 2551, 4186

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8045, 2551, 4186

Auto

18.6 38%

Teleop

23.3 48%

Endgame

6.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10221, 7245, 9114

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 7245, 9114

Auto

4.4 16%

Teleop

7.4 27%

Endgame

15.8 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score27.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 8–72
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.5Season APEX113.9

18.6Auto4.4

23.3Teleop7.4

6.5Endgame15.8

34Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	6
teleop	14	9
endgame	4	6
foul	0	0
total	36	21

Result

Final score

36 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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