Qualification · Qualification 44
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
174.58 – 80.63
76%24%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
90 – 125
Prediction missed · off by 64.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 86.78Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 28.64Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 59.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 5.66Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 39.49Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 35.48Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7667, 649, 8033
77
/ 100 compatProjected
174.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7667, 649, 8033
Auto
33.9 19%
Teleop
114.1 65%
Endgame
27.2 16%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4904, 114, 11243
49
/ 100 compatProjected
80.6 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4904, 114, 11243
Auto
12.8 16%
Teleop
42.4 53%
Endgame
25.5 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.87
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score174.6pts
Blue projected score80.6pts
Red win probability76%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 94
- Score range
- 61–195
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
415.7Season APEX280.2
33.9Auto12.8
114.1Teleop42.4
27.2Endgame25.5
0Consistency46
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 40 |
| teleop | 54 | 71 |
| endgame | 25 | 4 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 90 | 125 |
Result
Final score
90 – 125
Prediction missed · off by 64.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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