Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.28 – 44.58

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.5 ±10.5

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 14.06Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 72.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 146.58Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.4 ±13.3

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 29.52Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX -4.53Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 19.59Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11463, 840, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11463, 840, 5940

Auto

41.2 18%

Teleop

139.5 61%

Endgame

47.1 21%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8840, 9114, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8840, 9114, 6506

Auto

18.1 41%

Teleop

8.6 20%

Endgame

17.0 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score233.3pts

Blue projected score44.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 188.7
Score range: 25–253
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 112.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.5Season APEX183.4

41.2Auto18.1

139.5Teleop8.6

47.1Endgame17

56Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	18
teleop	85	13
endgame	56	8
foul	10	10
total	186	49

Result

Final score

186 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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