Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.77 – 48.39

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.6 ±12.8

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -9.87Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 39.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 49.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±13.9

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 10.72Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 21.23Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 16.44Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10615, 5507, 2551

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10615, 5507, 2551

Auto

21.4 27%

Teleop

34.7 44%

Endgame

22.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11230, 4765, 6918

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11230, 4765, 6918

Auto

19.9 43%

Teleop

22.1 48%

Endgame

4.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score48.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.4
Score range: 28–99
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.6Season APEX205

21.4Auto19.9

34.7Teleop22.1

22Endgame4.3

13Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	8
teleop	63	13
endgame	0	18
foul	0	5
total	86	44

Result

Final score

86 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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