Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.81 – 407.78

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 110.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.4 ±12.8

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 19.84Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 23.06Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 13.91Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.9 ±11.1

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 25.95Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 47.45Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 334.38Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5700, 7245, 4186

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5700, 7245, 4186

Auto

14.8 27%

Teleop

29.9 54%

Endgame

10.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10281, 2035, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 2035, 1323

Auto

64.9 16%

Teleop

255.6 63%

Endgame

86.8 21%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.37 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.8pts

Blue projected score407.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -351
Score range: 37–428
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.4Season APEX519.9

14.8Auto64.9

29.9Teleop255.6

10.7Endgame86.8

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	79
teleop	10	103
endgame	4	37
foul	0	0
total	25	219

Result

Final score

25 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 110.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree