Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.74 – 76.27

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.5 ±13.9

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 57.76Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 39.22Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -5.24Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±12.8

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 82.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 13.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -19.65Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2551, 11243, 4669

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 11243, 4669

Auto

24.0 27%

Teleop

53.8 60%

Endgame

11.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7667, 8840, 10615

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7667, 8840, 10615

Auto

20.0 27%

Teleop

46.9 64%

Endgame

6.9 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.7pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.5
Score range: 56–112
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.5Season APEX292.8

24Auto20

53.8Teleop46.9

11.4Endgame6.9

75Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	44
teleop	22	62
endgame	16	39
foul	0	5
total	49	150

Result

Final score

49 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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