Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.11 – 129.02

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±15.8

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 23.05Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 12.68Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8751Miramonte Robotics Team

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX -27.62Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226 ±12.2

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 60.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 31.24Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 37.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10221, 4186, 8751

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 4186, 8751

Auto

8.3 100%

Teleop

-6.0 0%

Endgame

2.9 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2035, 4765, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2035, 4765, 649

Auto

27.3 22%

Teleop

70.7 56%

Endgame

28.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.1pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.9
Score range: -13–150
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 114.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.8Season APEX226

8.3Auto27.3

-6Teleop70.7

2.9Endgame28.8

109Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	17
teleop	17	47
endgame	13	21
foul	5	0
total	45	85

Result

Final score

45 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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