Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.68 – 79.23

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±12.2

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX -12.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 28.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 38.06Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.1 ±12.2

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 46.12Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 19.2Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 13.91Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9114, 8852, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9114, 8852, 114

Auto

13.2 23%

Teleop

23.4 42%

Endgame

19.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 840, 4159, 10281

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 840, 4159, 10281

Auto

7.8 10%

Teleop

35.2 45%

Endgame

34.7 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.7pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 35–99
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 111.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.2Season APEX317.1

13.2Auto7.8

23.4Teleop35.2

19.7Endgame34.7

133Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	36
teleop	38	106
endgame	9	19
foul	0	10
total	68	171

Result

Final score

68 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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