Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
138.55 – 42.86
77%23%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
219 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 381 ±11.7
Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 26.23Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 65.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 46.8Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±15.3
Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 29.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 20.1Event APEX -23.33Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 36.3Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5104, 7667, 2551
67
/ 100 compatProjected
138.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5104, 7667, 2551
Auto
31.1 23%
Teleop
87.7 65%
Endgame
16.1 12%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4765, 8751, 6506
32
/ 100 compatProjected
42.9 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4765, 8751, 6506
Auto
9.4 22%
Teleop
9.4 22%
Endgame
23.6 56%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score138.6pts
Blue projected score42.9pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 95.7
- Score range
- 23–159
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
381Season APEX187.4
31.1Auto9.4
87.7Teleop9.4
16.1Endgame23.6
0Consistency138
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 72 | 20 |
| teleop | 140 | 6 |
| endgame | 7 | 1 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 219 | 27 |
Result
Final score
219 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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