Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

30.23 – 0

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±12.8

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -19.98Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 29.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 20.34Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±12.7

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 1.68Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX -9.83Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX -5.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10615, 649, 6918

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10615, 649, 6918

Auto

14.4 50%

Teleop

10.9 38%

Endgame

3.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4186, 8016, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

-13.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 8016, 5171

Auto

8.4 0%

Teleop

-24.1 100%

Endgame

-0.1 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.2pts

Blue projected score-13.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: -21–51
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255Season APEX232.9

14.4Auto8.4

10.9Teleop-24.1

3.6Endgame-0.1

134Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	14
teleop	29	33
endgame	2	0
foul	0	5
total	51	52

Result

Final score

51 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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