Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.85 – 162.48

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.3 ±9.8

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 84.87Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 31.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 131.77Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±10.4

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 20.31Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 72.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 70.01Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5104, 649, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5104, 649, 5940

Auto

56.6 23%

Teleop

136.6 55%

Endgame

53.9 22%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5700, 8033, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5700, 8033, 840

Auto

19.4 12%

Teleop

95.9 60%

Endgame

44.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.9pts

Blue projected score162.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.4
Score range: 138–272
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.3Season APEX403.2

56.6Auto19.4

136.6Teleop95.9

53.9Endgame44.1

53Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	15
teleop	122	64
endgame	23	28
foul	0	0
total	211	107

Result

Final score

211 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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