Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.6 – 0

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 84.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.5 ±10.5

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 28.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 38.06Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 130.25Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±13.3

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -24.08Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX -28.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -3.08Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3970, 2035, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 2035, 5940

Auto

48.3 25%

Teleop

99.6 52%

Endgame

44.8 23%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4669, 9114, 10281

/ 100 compat

Projected

-55.8 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4669, 9114, 10281

Auto

-8.5 16%

Teleop

-39.3 72%

Endgame

-6.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.6pts

Blue projected score-55.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.6
Score range: -20–217
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.5Season APEX148.1

48.3Auto-8.5

99.6Teleop-39.3

44.8Endgame-6.6

82Consistency195

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	198	14
endgame	74	11
foul	0	0
total	319	46

Result

Final score

319 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 84.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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