Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.67 – 123.66

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±12.8

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 31.14Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 47.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 27.03Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.3 ±11.7

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 51.69Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 36.85Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 35.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4765, 841, 10221

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4765, 841, 10221

Auto

23.3 22%

Teleop

52.5 50%

Endgame

29.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 4159, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 4159, 5104

Auto

35.4 28%

Teleop

62.2 49%

Endgame

28.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score123.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 86–144
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 108.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.5Season APEX412.3

23.3Auto35.4

52.5Teleop62.2

29.3Endgame28.1

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	32	46
endgame	28	27
foul	10	0
total	93	91

Result

Final score

93 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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