Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.9 – 174.02

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127 ±15.3

8751Miramonte Robotics Team

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 6.6Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 40.99Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 38.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.8 ±11.1

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 151.94Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -2.04Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 24.12Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8751, 2035, 8840

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8751, 2035, 8840

Auto

21.5 25%

Teleop

36.8 43%

Endgame

27.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5940, 10281, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

174 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5940, 10281, 5171

Auto

42.7 25%

Teleop

86.4 50%

Endgame

44.0 25%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.9pts

Blue projected score174pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.1
Score range: 66–194
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127Season APEX465.8

21.5Auto42.7

36.8Teleop86.4

27.5Endgame44

169Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	2	61
endgame	8	32
foul	5	0
total	32	122

Result

Final score

32 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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