Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.29 – 45.76

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±11

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 14.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 15.68Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 38.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.7 ±13.9

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 26.79Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX -24.56Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 43.53Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 4904, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 649, 4904, 840

Auto

9.5 14%

Teleop

26.4 38%

Endgame

33.1 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6918, 4669, 7245

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 4669, 7245

Auto

13.8 29%

Teleop

28.7 61%

Endgame

4.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.3pts

Blue projected score45.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 26–88
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 111.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.3Season APEX180.7

9.5Auto13.8

26.4Teleop28.7

33.1Endgame4.4

128Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	14
teleop	56	17
endgame	23	13
foul	5	5
total	101	49

Result

Final score

101 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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