Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.92 – 0

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

43 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±12.8

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 31.75Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 10.53Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 25.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±12.7

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX -29.7Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -21.31Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 16.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4973, 4186, 3970

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4973, 4186, 3970

Auto

7.5 11%

Teleop

26.5 40%

Endgame

31.6 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11463, 10615, 1280

/ 100 compat

Projected

-34.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11463, 10615, 1280

Auto

-4.1 11%

Teleop

-21.7 57%

Endgame

-12.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.9pts

Blue projected score-34.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.9
Score range: -21–89
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.6Season APEX254.2

7.5Auto-4.1

26.5Teleop-21.7

31.6Endgame-12.2

81Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	8
teleop	25	13
endgame	10	0
foul	0	0
total	43	21

Result

Final score

43 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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