Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.96 – 87.68

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.3 ±10.4

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 37.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 30.09Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX -14.11Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±13.3

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 39.87Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 31.53Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 16.28Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5507, 7667, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5507, 7667, 5700

Auto

13.3 24%

Teleop

40.0 73%

Endgame

1.5 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10221, 8852, 8045

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 8852, 8045

Auto

13.1 15%

Teleop

50.7 59%

Endgame

22.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54pts

Blue projected score87.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.7
Score range: 33–109
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.3Season APEX247.3

13.3Auto13.1

40Teleop50.7

1.5Endgame22.5

93Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	11
teleop	129	45
endgame	40	30
foul	0	0
total	218	86

Result

Final score

218 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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