Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.36 – 155.69

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 129.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.4 ±9.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 27.88Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 243.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 59.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±12.2

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 64.05Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX -0.88Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 92.52Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 114, 1323, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 1323, 8033

Auto

54.1 17%

Teleop

204.9 63%

Endgame

67.7 21%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 253, 8016, 2551

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 253, 8016, 2551

Auto

28.4 18%

Teleop

88.9 58%

Endgame

37.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score330.4pts

Blue projected score155.7pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.7
Score range: 137–349
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.4Season APEX241.2

54.1Auto28.4

204.9Teleop88.9

67.7Endgame37.3

98Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	13
teleop	281	5
endgame	100	4
foul	0	15
total	470	37

Result

Final score

470 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 129.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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