Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.88 – 120.75

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±14.9

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 27.26Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 39.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8751Miramonte Robotics Team

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 25.2Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±11.6

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 67.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 19.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11230, 841, 8751

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11230, 841, 8751

Auto

18.6 20%

Teleop

49.6 55%

Endgame

22.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2035, 840, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2035, 840, 5171

Auto

25.1 21%

Teleop

61.1 52%

Endgame

31.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.9pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.9
Score range: 72–141
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX276.1

18.6Auto25.1

49.6Teleop61.1

22.7Endgame31.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	14	47
endgame	6	49
foul	0	0
total	44	117

Result

Final score

44 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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