Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.58 – 66.82

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 2.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.6 ±12.7

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 20.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -2.21Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 32.61Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±12.2

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 27.25Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 25.68Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 13.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8852, 10281, 6918

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8852, 10281, 6918

Auto

7.5 15%

Teleop

24.2 48%

Endgame

19.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6506, 8045, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6506, 8045, 649

Auto

15.2 24%

Teleop

29.7 47%

Endgame

18.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.6pts

Blue projected score66.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.2
Score range: 30–88
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.6Season APEX258.2

7.5Auto15.2

24.2Teleop29.7

19.1Endgame18.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	23	27
endgame	11	25
foul	0	0
total	48	65

Result

Final score

48 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 2.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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