Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
15.04 – 67.42
34%66%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
142 – 34
Prediction missed · off by 80.2 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 215.5Event APEX -14.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 22.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 7Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.1 ±14.4
Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 38.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 29.4Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -0.76Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5507, 841, 4973
13
/ 100 compatProjected
15 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 5507, 841, 4973
Auto
6.4 47%
Teleop
-0.2 0%
Endgame
7.4 54%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 649, 8751, 10281
52
/ 100 compatProjected
67.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 649, 8751, 10281
Auto
16.4 24%
Teleop
41.4 60%
Endgame
11.2 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score15pts
Blue projected score67.4pts
Red win probability34%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -52.4
- Score range
- -5–87
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
480.2Season APEX185.1
6.4Auto16.4
-0.2Teleop41.4
7.4Endgame11.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 6 |
| teleop | 78 | 14 |
| endgame | 42 | 14 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 142 | 34 |
Result
Final score
142 – 34
Prediction missed · off by 80.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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