Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.42 – 88.77

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.5 ±12.7

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 108.85Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 10.29Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX -7.72Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.6 ±12.4

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 26.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 57.06Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 5.14Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2551, 8852, 4904

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 8852, 4904

Auto

16.3 15%

Teleop

68.0 61%

Endgame

27.0 24%

Strengths

· 2551 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4159, 5940, 4186

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4159, 5940, 4186

Auto

25.5 29%

Teleop

50.4 57%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.4pts

Blue projected score88.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 69–131
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.5Season APEX523.6

16.3Auto25.5

68Teleop50.4

27Endgame12.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	60
teleop	56	126
endgame	31	46
foul	0	5
total	103	237

Result

Final score

103 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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