CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.4 – 158.06

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±10.5

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 14.86Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 78.97Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 44.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 55.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 69.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 32.86Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 8119, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 8119, 4419

Auto

21.6 15%

Teleop

82.3 57%

Endgame

39.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5474, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5474, 4160

Auto

28.2 18%

Teleop

83.3 54%

Endgame

42.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.4pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 115–181
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 129.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.5Season APEX316.8

21.6Auto28.2

82.3Teleop83.3

39.5Endgame42.2

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	45
teleop	125	134
endgame	56	44
foul	0	5
total	206	228

Result

Final score

206 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Match videos

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