CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.8 – 209.84

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±10.4

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 125.79Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 133.09Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 3.92Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.3 ±11

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 6.87Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 94.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 108.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 9452, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 9452, 6695

Auto

32.9 13%

Teleop

148.4 58%

Endgame

74.6 29%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 2485, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 2485, 3647

Auto

39.2 19%

Teleop

125.5 60%

Endgame

45.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.8pts

Blue projected score209.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53
Score range: 187–286
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.8Season APEX290.3

32.9Auto39.2

148.4Teleop125.5

74.6Endgame45

8Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	50
teleop	145	86
endgame	108	28
foul	5	15
total	329	179

Result

Final score

329 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Match videos

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