CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.87 – 151.67

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.3

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 16.61Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 276.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 122.28Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±10.5

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 19.31Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 83.46Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 48.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 3128, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 3128, 2102

Auto

73.7 18%

Teleop

255.0 63%

Endgame

72.9 18%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8891, 8119, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 8119, 4419

Auto

20.7 13%

Teleop

94.8 60%

Endgame

42.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score415.9pts

Blue projected score151.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 264.2
Score range: 129–439
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX376.5

73.7Auto20.7

255Teleop94.8

72.9Endgame42.3

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	28
teleop	263	20
endgame	134	29
foul	0	0
total	480	77

Result

Final score

480 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Match videos

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