CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.78 – 160.25

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253 ±12.8

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 53.4Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 44.55Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 9.83Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 57.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 69.5Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 33.74Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2984, 5025, 3341

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2984, 5025, 3341

Auto

25.5 25%

Teleop

45.0 44%

Endgame

31.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5474, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5474, 4160

Auto

25.9 17%

Teleop

85.2 55%

Endgame

43.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.8pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 85–183
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253Season APEX316.8

25.5Auto25.9

45Teleop85.2

31Endgame43.9

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	42
teleop	56	69
endgame	28	36
foul	0	0
total	120	147

Result

Final score

120 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 pts

Match videos

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