CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.34 – 149.74

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.3 ±11

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 2.52Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 104.32Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 89.5Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 53.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 65.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 30.26Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4984, 3647, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 3647, 2485

Auto

35.6 18%

Teleop

120.1 61%

Endgame

40.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5474, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5474, 4160

Auto

26.3 18%

Teleop

75.9 53%

Endgame

41.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: 127–219
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 125.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.3Season APEX316.8

35.6Auto26.3

120.1Teleop75.9

40.6Endgame41

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	26
teleop	148	125
endgame	62	57
foul	0	0
total	265	208

Result

Final score

265 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.