CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.85 – 139.32

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±10.4

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 129.27Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 137.31Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 8.27Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.6 ±12.8

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 54.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 39.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 45.43Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 9452, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 9452, 6695

Auto

29.4 11%

Teleop

161.9 61%

Endgame

76.2 28%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2984, 2543, 5025

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2984, 2543, 5025

Auto

25.2 19%

Teleop

72.5 53%

Endgame

38.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score274.9pts

Blue projected score139.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.5
Score range: 116–298
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.8Season APEX264.6

29.4Auto25.2

161.9Teleop72.5

76.2Endgame38.4

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	43
teleop	96	70
endgame	69	19
foul	5	0
total	219	132

Result

Final score

219 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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