CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.91 – 106.87

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±10.5

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 19.73Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 83.34Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 49.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.9 ±11.7

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 31.08Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 50.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 25.34Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 8119, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 8119, 4419

Auto

20.0 12%

Teleop

96.1 60%

Endgame

44.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10586, 4738, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10586, 4738, 5514

Auto

17.6 18%

Teleop

48.2 48%

Endgame

34.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.9pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46
Score range: 84–176
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.5Season APEX292.9

20Auto17.6

96.1Teleop48.2

44.8Endgame34.5

2Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	90	44
endgame	31	25
foul	0	0
total	148	85

Result

Final score

148 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Match videos

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