CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.62 – 46.27

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 9

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.3

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 11.29Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 272.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 118.19Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 98.2 ±16.9

3704RoboSapiens

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 0.72Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 25.78Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 19.77Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 3128, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 3128, 2102

Auto

75.8 19%

Teleop

249.1 64%

Endgame

66.6 17%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3704, 6515, 10392

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3704, 6515, 10392

Auto

7.1 19%

Teleop

20.1 52%

Endgame

11.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score401.6pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 355.4
Score range: 24–424
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 124.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX98.2

75.8Auto7.1

249.1Teleop20.1

66.6Endgame11.1

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	4
teleop	280	5
endgame	97	0
foul	30	0
total	476	9

Result

Final score

476 – 9

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Match videos

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