CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.81 – 203.82

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±10.4

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 125.06Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 132.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 3.81Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.3 ±11

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 9.31Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 90.06Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 104.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 9452, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 9452, 6695

Auto

41.7 16%

Teleop

139.4 54%

Endgame

75.1 29%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 2485, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 2485, 3647

Auto

40.3 20%

Teleop

121.9 60%

Endgame

40.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score261.8pts

Blue projected score203.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58
Score range: 180–286
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.8Season APEX290.3

41.7Auto40.3

139.4Teleop121.9

75.1Endgame40.4

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	48
teleop	117	153
endgame	58	20
foul	45	15
total	275	236

Result

Final score

275 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Match videos

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