CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.3 – 168.62

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 60 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.3 ±11

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 6.36Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 87.35Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 101.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 59.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 72.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 37.49Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4984, 2485, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 2485, 3647

Auto

39.7 20%

Teleop

115.1 59%

Endgame

39.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5474, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5474, 4160

Auto

30.4 19%

Teleop

91.2 56%

Endgame

42.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.3pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.7
Score range: 145–219
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 131.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.3Season APEX316.8

39.7Auto30.4

115.1Teleop91.2

39Endgame42.3

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	56
teleop	166	134
endgame	48	20
foul	0	15
total	259	225

Result

Final score

259 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 60 pts

Match videos

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