CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.19 – 274.54

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.3

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 19.71Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 279.28Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 126.2Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±10.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 8.54Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 137.1Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 128.9Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 3128, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 3128, 2102

Auto

74.7 18%

Teleop

256.1 62%

Endgame

82.5 20%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 9452, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 9452, 6995

Auto

39.4 15%

Teleop

148.0 55%

Endgame

80.5 30%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score425.2pts

Blue projected score274.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.6
Score range: 252–448
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX483.8

74.7Auto39.4

256.1Teleop148

82.5Endgame80.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	55
teleop	165	88
endgame	94	44
foul	0	0
total	340	187

Result

Final score

340 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 pts

Match videos

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