CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.38 – 78.62

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.8 ±13.9

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 24.25Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 92.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 106.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.5 ±14.1

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 21.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 8.12Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 48.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11459, 2485, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11459, 2485, 3647

Auto

42.8 20%

Teleop

113.7 54%

Endgame

53.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5514, 8870, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5514, 8870, 4738

Auto

11.1 15%

Teleop

29.2 39%

Endgame

34.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.4pts

Blue projected score78.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.8
Score range: 55–247
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.8Season APEX245.5

42.8Auto11.1

113.7Teleop29.2

53.4Endgame34.3

24Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	78	18
endgame	22	28
foul	0	0
total	132	64

Result

Final score

132 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Match videos

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