CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.57 – 16.48

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.5 ±11.2

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 88.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX -5.59Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 33.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 112.1 ±14.8

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 33.14Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -11.07Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX -5.59Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8119, 5025, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8119, 5025, 812

Auto

25.5 22%

Teleop

65.1 56%

Endgame

25.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 8891, 11459

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 8891, 11459

Auto

7.5 44%

Teleop

2.8 17%

Endgame

6.6 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.6pts

Blue projected score16.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.1
Score range: -6–138
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.5Season APEX112.1

25.5Auto7.5

65.1Teleop2.8

25Endgame6.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	116	5
endgame	20	1
foul	0	0
total	159	18

Result

Final score

159 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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