CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.58 – 149.89

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 114.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.2 ±11.7

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 6.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 43.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 2.86Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.7 ±13.9

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 77.43Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 69.6Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 2.86Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8006, 3647, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 3647, 6695

Auto

14.9 28%

Teleop

22.3 42%

Endgame

15.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4919, 3965, 2839

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4919, 3965, 2839

Auto

27.7 18%

Teleop

93.8 63%

Endgame

28.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.6pts

Blue projected score149.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.3
Score range: 31–172
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.2Season APEX142.7

14.9Auto27.7

22.3Teleop93.8

15.4Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	4
teleop	107	31
endgame	51	6
foul	0	0
total	173	41

Result

Final score

173 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 114.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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