CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.04 – 89.97

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±12.8

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 16.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 8Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140 ±13.3

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 45.14Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 25.81Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 19.02Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3965, 9615, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3965, 9615, 812

Auto

14.5 18%

Teleop

36.0 44%

Endgame

30.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5025, 6515, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5025, 6515, 8891

Auto

21.8 23%

Teleop

47.9 52%

Endgame

23.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score90pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.9
Score range: 55–112
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.7Season APEX140

14.5Auto21.8

36Teleop47.9

30.6Endgame23.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	19
teleop	51	44
endgame	32	29
foul	5	0
total	104	92

Result

Final score

104 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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