CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.66 – 154

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±13.9

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 24.39Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 35.35Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -3.08Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.7 ±14.9

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 1.67Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 14.33Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 138Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5514, 2543, 9573

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5514, 2543, 9573

Auto

12.6 21%

Teleop

23.6 40%

Endgame

22.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2839, 2827, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2839, 2827, 6995

Auto

27.6 18%

Teleop

88.2 57%

Endgame

37.7 25%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score154pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.3
Score range: 35–176
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.3Season APEX243.7

12.6Auto27.6

23.6Teleop88.2

22.8Endgame37.7

4Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	27
teleop	44	39
endgame	26	2
foul	0	0
total	96	68

Result

Final score

96 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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