CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.56 – 38.05

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.2 ±13.3

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 28.63Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 2.63Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX -0.7Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.5 ±14.9

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 7.57Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 7.28Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 23.2Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4160, 8006, 4984

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 8006, 4984

Auto

10.2 35%

Teleop

14.4 49%

Endgame

4.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 3341, 11459

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 3341, 11459

Auto

13.1 48%

Teleop

-3.5 0%

Endgame

17.9 65%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.6pts

Blue projected score38.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.5
Score range: 9–60
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.2Season APEX229.5

10.2Auto13.1

14.4Teleop-3.5

4.9Endgame17.9

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	35	34
endgame	12	13
foul	0	5
total	61	70

Result

Final score

61 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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