CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.35 – 63.54

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.7 ±15.4

3704RoboSapiens

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 2.39Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 10.34Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 31.62Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 107 ±15.8

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 25.58Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 16.98Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 20.98Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3704, 8870, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3704, 8870, 10586

Auto

7.8 26%

Teleop

-2.6 0%

Endgame

25.2 83%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6515, 1972, 10392

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6515, 1972, 10392

Auto

17.7 30%

Teleop

30.3 52%

Endgame

10.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.4pts

Blue projected score63.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.2
Score range: 22–86
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.7Season APEX107

7.8Auto17.7

-2.6Teleop30.3

25.2Endgame10.8

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	10	31
endgame	13	13
foul	0	0
total	37	58

Result

Final score

37 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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