CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.76 – 51.68

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±11.2

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 14.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -6.51Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 80.2Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.8 ±13.9

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 46.7Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 4.1Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 0.88Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9730, 3749, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9730, 3749, 8119

Auto

15.9 18%

Teleop

57.9 64%

Endgame

16.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5025, 6885, 2839

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5025, 6885, 2839

Auto

15.4 27%

Teleop

34.0 60%

Endgame

6.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.1
Score range: 30–110
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX137.8

15.9Auto15.4

57.9Teleop34

16.5Endgame6.8

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	14
teleop	50	32
endgame	34	16
foul	0	0
total	103	62

Result

Final score

103 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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