CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.3 – 41.43

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.8 ±15.3

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 21.08Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 22.57Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 9.65Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246 ±11.7

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 5.89Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 29.92Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 5.62Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 10392, 4919

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 10392, 4919

Auto

13.4 24%

Teleop

42.7 75%

Endgame

0.8 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3341, 10586, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3341, 10586, 2658

Auto

20.2 51%

Teleop

16.0 41%

Endgame

3.2 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score41.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 19–75
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.8Season APEX246

13.4Auto20.2

42.7Teleop16

0.8Endgame3.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	12
teleop	19	18
endgame	4	18
foul	0	15
total	37	63

Result

Final score

37 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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