CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.79 – 39.56

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.4 ±10.7

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 31.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 110.61Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 270.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165 ±14.9

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 16.52Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10625BuzzFusion

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 18.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 4.99Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2543, 2102, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2543, 2102, 3128

Auto

72.9 18%

Teleop

255.3 64%

Endgame

73.7 18%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1622, 10625, 8006

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1622, 10625, 8006

Auto

11.0 36%

Teleop

13.9 46%

Endgame

5.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score411.8pts

Blue projected score39.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 372.2
Score range: 18–434
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.4Season APEX165

72.9Auto11

255.3Teleop13.9

73.7Endgame5.6

23Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	13
teleop	283	1
endgame	90	13
foul	0	0
total	470	27

Result

Final score

470 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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