CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.33 – 161.1

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±13.9

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 9.66Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 21.85Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 15.82Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.8 ±12.8

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 110.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 17.97Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 32.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9615, 5514, 1972

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9615, 5514, 1972

Auto

11.1 27%

Teleop

9.0 22%

Endgame

21.7 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3647, 9730, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3647, 9730, 4160

Auto

31.0 19%

Teleop

90.5 57%

Endgame

38.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.3pts

Blue projected score161.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.8
Score range: 25–183
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.4Season APEX254.8

11.1Auto31

9Teleop90.5

21.7Endgame38.3

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	28	66
endgame	12	25
foul	0	5
total	54	128

Result

Final score

54 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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