CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.74 – 82.18

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130 ±13.3

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -0.12Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 20.2Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 4.66Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175 ±14.9

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 15.56Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 11.8Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 54.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2839, 8891, 3341

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2839, 8891, 3341

Auto

16.9 57%

Teleop

6.4 22%

Endgame

6.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2827, 4919, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2827, 4919, 4419

Auto

9.4 10%

Teleop

57.0 64%

Endgame

23.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.7pts

Blue projected score82.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.4
Score range: 3–104
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130Season APEX175

16.9Auto9.4

6.4Teleop57

6.3Endgame23.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	8	29
endgame	16	13
foul	0	0
total	37	57

Result

Final score

37 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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